Day-of-week and seasonal trends are well-known and often used in retail strategy. Retailers, especially those in competitive sectors, recognize how the days of the week and the peak of holiday seasons drive shopping habits. As marketing teams gear up for such expected fluctuations (see our detailed webinar on optimizing for holiday campaigns: watch now), it's essential not to overlook subtler, yet impactful, cycles that influence customer behavior.
The week-of-the-month cycles
Recently, Kroger, the second-largest grocer in the United States, called out another type of cyclical behavior: the week-of-the-month. This observation isn't just an interesting pattern but a reflection of economic pressures that affect consumer spending habits.
In their analysis, Kroger saw that budget-conscious shoppers had developed distinct purchasing behaviors throughout the month. Customers make bulk purchases of essentials at the beginning of the month with spending patterns becoming more conservative as the month progresses.
"We're now seeing other customer segments beginning to make changes as well... Budget-conscious customers are buying more at the beginning of the month to stock up on essential items and groceries. And then as the month progresses, they are more cautious with their spending. In response, we are supporting our customers by keeping prices low through promotions, including loyalty discounts, personalized offers, and fuel rewards," the company shared.
A shift in marketing strategies
The reality of consumers stretching their budgets to last the entire month is far from new. But it's not something we've often seen reflected in marketing plans. Understanding and adapting to these fluctuations can help brands resonate more deeply with their audiences. Here are some takeaways:
1. Adjust to customers' needs
If you target lower-affluence or budget-sensitive customers, take the above into consideration. End-of-month promotions that push luxury or non-essential upgrades may not align with customer priorities. Be aware that early-month purchases of staples may be pulled forward from later weeks. Test offers for consolidating their early-month purchases for the benefit to use later when money is tight. Ensure that loyalty rewards remain attractive and achievable even if customers are down-trading or adjusting their spending behavior.
2. Leverage your data
The timing of purchases can be an indicator of customer segments that may be more sensitive to economic pressures. For non-essential categories, like eating out, you may see customers not appearing in your data at month-end. This insight can guide when and how to position promotions and reminders that align with customers' spending realities.
3. Offer support and value beyond transactions
Reinforcing the value of loyalty programs and other customer-centric offerings can make a significant difference. If it makes sense for your business, look for ways to help customers reduce their overall stress beyond standard discounts. For example, banks and credit unions offer budgeting tools and free tax preparation. Could you or your partners do something similar?
A balanced perspective
Individual customers have needs different from each other and different over time. It's not good that people's financial stresses are so big that they show up in company reports. But there have always been customers who are budget-focused, those who are relatively unaffected, and many who shift between these realities based on changing circumstances.
For brands, the challenge—and opportunity—lies in creating marketing strategies that reflect this complexity. Understanding the week-of-the-month cycle, like Kroger pointed out, is a reminder for brands to dig deeper into details of customer behavior. These insights aren’t just useful for boosting sales—they’re key to building real connections with customers and addressing their changing needs. When brands adapt their marketing to reflect these patterns, they don’t just sell better; they create loyalty and become trusted partners in their customers' lives.
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